For the moment, lets put aside how crazy of a year it has been in the NFL. Lets not even take into account the week to week randomness that has been exhibited this season. The 49ers have proven, so far, that they cannot win against quality opponents. I did a little math and came up with some interesting numbers. The combined record of the teams San Francisco has defeated is 20-33. The only team with a winning record they have beaten is the Green Bay Packers. Now, this alone is not a startling statistic. As a "good team", San Francisco is expected to beat the "bad teams". I'm not faulting them for this, in fact, they deserve some kudos, great job fellas. In those games, they have averaged almost 35 points per game, 34.66 with a repeating decimal, to be exact. That all is great, it's what you expect of a quality team. Now, with their losses we begin to see some interesting stats. The teams they have lost to have a combined record of 21-7. Also, all three of these teams have quality defenses. Seattle and Carolina boast outstanding squads while Indy is better than average. In those three games, the 49ers have averaged just 6.3 points per game. Let that sink in, 6.3 points. Also, they have been out scored a combined 66-19 in those losses. This brings us to the main problem with Colin Kaepernick. He can't execute against quality defenses. When he is pressured, he makes poor and hasty decisions. He looks at his primary receiver, then gets sacked or throws it away. I was more willing to accept this earlier in the season, as Kap is still relatively inexperienced. But he has had time to improve upon those problems. If he's going to be the man, he has to play like the man. He hasn't matured as quickly as I had hoped. He still lacks skill as a progression quarterback. He hasn't developed the ability to sit in the pocket and watch routes develop. At the slightest sign of pressure, he fails to step up in the pocket and make a play. With the game on the line today, he threw an interception into quadruple coverage, instead of throwing to a wide open Vance McDonald underneath. I know that he's still young, but he has been put in command. He needs to step his game up, and be the commander. So far this season, Kap has failed to answer the call when an opposing defense presents a challenge.
On a side note, the 49er defense is not to blame whatsoever. They have kept the niners close in every game this year. Even the two blowout losses to Seattle and Indy were close going into the fourth quarter. So I guess that's a positive to take away from all this.
Still, what's most upsetting about everything is that the Seattle Seahawks could easily be in second place in the NFC West. Seattle has squeaked out wins against Carolina, Houston, St. Louis and Tampa Bay (while also losing to Indianapolis). What's the difference though? Seattle has found a way to win the games where they played less than stellar. They have found a way to get tough wins on the road, even if they weren't against quality opponents. The Seattle Seahawks are doing the things a good team does, win at all cost.
Now two games back in the NfC West, the 49ers don't have much hope of winning the division. They have to wait for some of that "any given Sunday" randomness to strike the Seahawks. Until then, all San Francisco can do is take it one week at a time. I didn't expect them to go undefeated this year, but I did expect them to play better against good teams. A good showing against New Orleans next week will calm me down, but right now, I say the 49ers have little chance of going to the Superbowl this year.
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